تصمیم گیری در محیط های پیچیده

ستاره غیر فعالستاره غیر فعالستاره غیر فعالستاره غیر فعالستاره غیر فعال
 
توضیحات
زیر مجموعه: دانلودها
دسته: نرم افزارها
نوشته شده توسط a.moarrefi
بازدید: 1729

تصمیم گیری در شرایط و محیط های پیچیده

 تحیلی سلسله مراتبی(AHP) برای تصمیم گیری و تحلیل فرایند شبکه ای(ANP) برای تصمیم گیری با درجه واستگی و بازخورد

نویسنده: Rozann W. Saaty

واژه ANP مخفف عبارت Analytical Network Process (ANP) به معنی فرایند تحلیل شبکه است. فرایند تحلیل شبکه یا ANP یکی دیگر از سری تکنیک‌های تصمیم گیری است که شباهت زیادی به روش AHP دارد. هر یک از روش ها بر اساس یک سری فرضیات بنا شده شده است. برای نمون اگر معیارها مستقل از هم باشند و مقایسات زوجی امکانپذیر باشد مدل تصمیم گیری مناسب مدل AHP است ولی اگر معیارها مستقل نباشند روش ANP بهتر است. برای درک بهتر تکنیک ANP مقاله استاد اسفندیار زبردست را مطالعه کنید

متاسفانه بسیاری از مقالات فارسی که با ANP کار شده اشتباه است و به سادگی آنها را الگو قرار ندهید.

این کتاب برای کسانی که می خواهند این دو نوع تصمیم گیری را به صورت علمی و عملی بیاموزند بسیار مفید است. پیشنهاد روستا شهر این است که حتما کتاب ذیل را دانلود کرده و از آن بهره ی لازم را ببرید

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
for Decision Making
and
The Analytic Network Process (ANP)
for Decision Making with
Dependence and Feedback

 

پیشگفتار گتاب :

We want this book to help people be exemplary survivors, persistent and durable, creative decision-makers and leaders, effective negotiators, doers and implementers of ideas and plans.
The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is the most comprehensive framework for the analysis of societal, governmental and corporate decisions that is available today to the decision-maker. It allows one to include all the factors and criteria, tangible and intangible that have bearing on making a best decision. The Analytic Network Process allows both interaction and feedback within clusters of elements (inner dependence) and between clusters (outer dependence). Such feedback best captures the complex effects of interplay in human society, especially when risk and uncertainty are involved.
The ANP, developed by Thomas L. Saaty, provides a way to input judgments and measurements to derive ratio scale priorities for the distribution of influence among the factors and groups of factors in the decision. Ratio scales make possible proportionate allocation of resources according to derived priorities. The well-known decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a special case of the ANP. Both the AHP and the ANP derive ratio scale priorities by making paired comparisons of elements on a common property or criterion. Although many decision problems are best studied through the ANP, one may wish to compare the results obtained with it to those obtained using the AHP or any other decision approach with respect to

the time it took to obtain the results, the effort involved in making the judgments, and the relevance and accuracy of the results.
ANP models have three parts: the first is a strategic criteria in terms of which a decision is evaluated according to its merits of Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risk. Each merit provides control criteria for the second part of the decision and with each control criterion there is associated a network of influences that determine the priorities of the alternatives of the decision for that control criterion. The priorities of the merits and those of the control criteria are then used to synthesize the priorities of the alternatives to obtain the final best answer. The supermatrix and its powers are the fundamental tools needed to lay out the workings of the ANP
The ANP has been applied to a large variety of decisions: marketing, medical, political, military, social, forecasting and prediction and many others. Its accuracy of prediction is impressive in applications that have been made to economic trends, sports and other events for which the outcome later became known. Detailed case studies of applications are included in this book and also in the book, The Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback, by Thomas L. Saaty

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